Entries in Bartel's Brackets (12)

Tuesday
Mar162010

Bartel: NCAA Selection Committee is Lazy

By Sean Bartel

If I had to describe the tournament committee's performance Sunday,
one word comes to mind.

Lazy.

How else can describe sliding Temple down to a five seed, even though
the Owls have the following over the four seeds (Wisconsin, Maryland,
Vanderbilt, and Purdue): more top 50 and top 100 RPI wins, a better
road/neutral court record, better record the last ten games, and a
better RPI? Or how else would you describe California insanely jumping
to an eight seed despite having just one win against the RPI top 50
(against 11 seed Washington) and three losses to teams outside the RPI
top 100?

But wait: Cal plays in a BCS league and Temple in the Atlantic 10. Lazy anyone?

What about saying your total body of work matters, then bumping Notre
Dame and Marquette up to six seeds? While the Golden Eagles and Irish
have looked like their seeding the last month, their whole season did
not bear out a seeding that high.

Or how angry should Richmond be? The Spiders have a stellar resume,
made the Atlantic 10 finals, beating Xavier just to get there. They
have more RPI top 50 wins than the Musketeers (and a better record),
similar stats everywhere, and lost in double overtime at Xavier just a
few weeks ago. Yet who gets the higher seed?

Xavier, at six. Richmond at seven. Lazy.

How does West Virginia finish the year playing the best basketball in
the country, then lose not only a one seed, but get put into
Kentucky's bracket? Better yet, how does Duke win a weak tea ACC (and
putrid ACC tournament) and somehow get seeded higher than every team
in the Big East? Certainly they're deserving of a one seed, but are
they really saying Duke had a better year than Syracuse, a team that
lost ONE road game?

But the greatest case for the committee's laziness comes with one of
the most glaring errors in bracketing history. I'll show my inner
bracket nerd by pointing this one out.

Years ago the NCAA created a rule stating teams from the same
conference must be seeded so they cannot meet until the regional
finals; this was to discourage regular season rematches, and make sure
each conference got as many teams as far as possible in the tournament
(f.e. If Kansas is 1 seed in the Midwest region, Oklahoma State or any
Big 12 team could not be seeded 16th, 8th, 9th, 4th, 13th, 5th or
12th. They'd have to be on the other side of the region, like the
Cowboys are now at 7). In 2006, when the Big East expanded to 16 and
the ACC to 12, the NCAA relaxed those rules, saying teams could meet
earlier than the regional finals, but only (we assumed) if a
conference got in nine teams, thus making it impossible for teams to
be separated until the late rounds.

That is, until Sunday.

This year's committee saw fit to put two possible Sweet 16 Big East
rematches: 6th-seeded Notre Dame and 2nd-seeded Villanova in the
South, and 6th-seeded Marquette and 2nd-seeded West Virginia in the
Midwest. Why? So far, committee chairman Dan Guerrero has offered
vague, weak reasoning that they tried to avoid regular season
rematches, but couldn't, blah blah blah.

Problem is Kentucky's half of the East bracket and Kansas's half of
the South had no Big East teams. Zero. Zilch. Nada. In this situation,
why not just shift Marquette or Notre Dame there? Guerrero would
probably say doing that, and thus moving them up to a five seed, would
be seeding them too high. And while that's true, I've made ten
brackets so far this year, with nearly everyone including eight Big
East teams, and I've found a way to keep these teams separated until
the regional finals. Yet a committee of "basketball people" locked in
a room can't get this done?

Perhaps I'm just not lethargic enough to be a part of this committee.
But laziness shouldn't be something linked to the most important
college event of the year.

Other mistakes ....

-- I guess the committee doesn't consider the latter a screw up, but
for bracketologists, believe me: It is. The last time the committee
screwed up this bad was 2003, when it accidently put BYU in a region
where they might have to play a regional finals game on Sunday
(because of the school's Mormon faith, BYU doesn't play on Sundays).
So, the tournament committee made a unique ruling: If BYU made the
sweet 16, it would switch from the South region into the Midwest
region, thus screwing up everyone's bracket.

Fortunately for the NCAA tournament committee and its brain freeze,
UConn beat BYU in the first round, and disaster was averted.

-- In case you're wondering, I got 33 of the 34 at-large berths
correct (Mississippi State was left out, and Florida put in) and 52 of
the 65 teams within one seed of their actual seeding. The only one I
was way off on? California as an 8 seed - I had them as an 11. But
I've already stated how thoroughly I disagree with the committee's
choice there.

-- Don't have stats on this, but I'd guess Texas, as an 8 seed in the
East, has the lowest seed ever for a team that reached number one in
the country at some point during the season.

If you're thinking the Longhorns can upset Kentucky in the second
round, you might want to rethink that: UT has struggled the second
half of the season, and is still dealing with a couple of bad
injuries. I'm going with one and done for Texas.

BTW, committee gets credit here: I seeded Texas way too high at six.
Kudos to them for not being fooled by Texas's early season results.

-- Remind me again: How do we seed here? San Diego State and UNLV have
similar resumes (save SDSU's much higher RPI); the Aztecs won the
Mountain West tourney title (beating UNLV for the second time this
year) ... and UNLV is seeded three slots higher?

Is this the reputation NCAA tournament?

-- Only 13 coaches have won two national titles, and just two are in
this tournament: Duke's Mike Krzyzewski and Florida's Billy Donovan.
Syracuse's Jim Boeheim and Kansas's Bill Self look like the only
1-time title winning coaches in position to join them.

-- Congrats to Kansas, the team with the highest RPI for this season.
What does it mean?

Nada. Out of the previous 16 teams to win the regular-season RPI
title, only two, yes, TWO, have won the national title (2001 Duke and
1996 Kentucky).

Here's something fascinating: Duke has had the highest RPI in the
country five of the last 11 regular seasons (2009, 2006, 2004, 2001,
1999), yet has only won a single national title (2001).

-- If Jim Boeheim's Syracuse Orange make the second round? He moves up
to 7th all time in career wins. Final Four? He's in sixth. From there
it gets difficult - he'll be chasing Krzyzewski, and be 45 wins behind
Kentucky's legendary coach Adolph Rupp.

-- Longest streak without a tournament win for a team in this year's
field? That goes to Baylor - way back in 1950 was the last Bear
victory, when BU won a 56-55 thriller over BYU. Close behind is St.
Mary's, who hasn't won since 1959. Or you have San Diego State, making
its sixth appearance while looking for victory number one. Similarly
Cornell is making its fifth appearance sans a win. Its been 27 years
since Ohio or Robert Morris won in the big dance.

But none are trying to re-create the memories Houston is: 26 years ago
Guy Lewis's team fell short against Georgetown in the NCAA Finals.
Back then, that was the Cougars' third straight Final Four, and second
straight national title game. Incredibly, Houston hasn't won a
tournament game since; in fact, they've only made it to the dance four
times. Beating Maryland would be a good way for the NCAA to remember
the best school of the 1980's to not win a national title.

Sunday
Mar142010

Sean Bartel's Final NCAA Brackets Prediction

East Region (Syracuse, March 25 and 27)

Milwaukee, March 18 and 20
1-Kentucky vs. 16-Winthrop/Arkansas-Pine Bluff winner
8-Notre Dame vs. 9-Clemson

San Jose, March 18 and 20
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Murray State
5-BYU vs. 12-Siena

New Orleans, March 18 and 20
3-Baylor vs. 14-Sam Houston
6-Richmond vs. 11-Old Dominion

Providence, March 18 and 20
2-Villanova vs. 15-Morgan State
7-Florida State vs. 10-Washington

South Region, March 26 and 28


Buffalo, March 19 and 21
1-Syracuse vs. 16-East Tennessee State
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-St. Mary's

New Orleans, March 18 and 20
4-Purdue vs. 13-Oakland
5-Butler vs. 12-Mississippi State

Providence, March 18 and 20
3-Temple vs. 14-Houston
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-UTEP

Oklahoma City, March 18 and 20
2-Kansas State vs. 15-North Texas
7-Marquette vs. 10-Wake Forest

Midwest Region (St. Louis, March 26 and 28)

Oklahoma City, March 18 and 20
1-Kansas vs. 16-Vermont
8-Northern Iowa vs. 9-UNLV

Spokane, March 19 and 21
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Ohio
5-Maryland vs. 12-Minnesota

Jacksonville, March 19 and 21
3-Georgetown vs. 14-Wofford
6-Texas vs. 11-Utah State

Milwaukee, March 19 and 21
2-Ohio State vs. 15-Robert Morris
7-Xavier vs. 10-Georgia Tech

West - Salt Lake City, March 25 and 27

Buffalo, March 19 and 21
1-West Virginia vs. 16-Lehigh
8-Missouri vs. 9-San Diego State

Spokane, March 19 and 21
4-Michigan State vs. 13-New Mexico State
5-Tennessee vs. 12-Cornell

San Jose, March 18 and 20
3-New Mexico vs. 14-Montana
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-California

Jacksonville, March 19 and 21
2-Duke vs. 15-UC-Santa Barbara
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Louisville

Last four teams in: UTEP, California, Minnesota, Missisippi State
Last four teams out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Illinois

Conference Breakdown:

Big East: 8 teams
Big XII: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Atlantic Ten: 3
Pac 10: 2
Conference USA: 2
WAC: 2
West Coast: 2

Thursday
Mar112010

This is What NCAA Tourney Would Look Like With 96 Teams

By Sean Bartel

In our podcasts the last few weeks, Lance and I have talked about what
we both consider a terrible idea: Expanding the NCAA tournament from
65 to 96 teams. Sadly, expansion seems like it might actually happen,
even if by a few teams (listen to this week's where Lance and I
discuss the idea of expanding to 72 teams and two scenarios). So, I
thought I'd show you what a 96-team bracket would look like.

It's not pretty. But it's not nearly as bad as I thought it would be.

Here are some of the changes I assume the NCAA would impose if the
bracket expanded from 65 to 96 teams:

- All regular season champions go to the tournament ALONG with the
tournament champion. This means a team like Weber State that won the
league title but lost the tournament finals would get in (note: Only
one team would get the regular-season title; somehow they'd break the
tie).
- 32 teams would receive byes, while 64 teams play the new NCAA
tournament first round.
- The first round would be played on campus. Second and third round
games would return to neutral sites, similar to what the first and
second rounds are now.
The reason the new first round games would be played at home sites is
they'd likely have to be played on a Tuesday, away from the normal
neutral sites, and frankly it would be very tough to sell tickets to a
Cornell/Vermont game played in Houston, Texas.
-- The normal selection of 16 seeds per region will expand to 24
seeds. The top eight seeds in each region get a bye into the second
round. For example, the nine seed will play the 24 seed, with the
winner facing the eight seed, and so on.

Anyhow, I took this week's bracket and added 31 teams. Six bids went
to teams who won their regular season but not the conference
tournament, and 25 more from an at large pool. I didn't make an effort
to keep conference teams apart - really, I'm not sure how the NCAA
would regulate or change the current rule that says conference teams
cannot meet until the regional finals.

For the at large berths, it was basically a crap shoot: I grabbed
every team that was on the bubble before and put them in. With the
remaining 12 slots, I looked at teams with RPIs under 80. All those
got in.

Surprising stuff? Yes, the Big East dominated - an amazing 13 teams in
the draw - but a number of smaller conferences grabbed more bids than
I expected. The Colonial got four teams in; the WAC got four;
Conference USA got five. In expanding from 65 to 96, the ACC and Pac
10 added no teams; the Big 12 added just one; the Big Ten and SEC two
(the Big East added five). Perhaps this somewhat punctures my argument
most new teams would be BCS squads. Still, I look at this draw and
don't find much interesting.

The brackets will stay the same - f.e. Kentucky will still play in
Milwaukee, but will meet the winner of Charlotte/William & Mary in the
first round.  So, here goes. Start it off, as usual, with the East
bracket:
======
East Region (Syracuse, March 25 and 27)

Milwaukee, March 19 and 21
1-Kentucky vs. 16-Charlotte/17-William & Mary winner
8-Missouri vs. 9-Notre Dame/24-Stony Brook winner

Spokane, March 19 and 21
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Cornell/20-Fairfield winner
5-Butler vs. 12-San Diego State/21-Morgan State winner

New Orleans, March 18 and 20
3-Kansas State vs. 14-Georgia Tech/19-Nevada winner
6-Xavier vs. 11-Siena/22-Vermont winner

Providence, March 18 and 20
2-Villanova vs. 15-Mississippi/18-VCU winner
7-Northern Iowa vs. 10-Virginia Tech/23-Quinnipiac winner

Midwest Region (St. Louis, March 26 and 28)

Oklahoma City, March 18 and 20
1-Kansas vs. 16-Mississippi State/17-Oakland winner
8-Louisville vs. 9-UTEP/24-Winthrop winner

San Jose, March 18 and 20
4-Maryland vs. 13-Kent State/20-Wright State winner
5-Michigan State vs. 12-Washington/21-Coastal Carolina winner

Jacksonville, March 19 and 21
3-Pittsburgh vs. 14-UAB/19-Marshall winner
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Rhode Island/22-East Tennessee State winner

Milwaukee, March 19 and 21
2-Purdue vs. 15-Connecticut/18-Wofford winner
7-UNLV vs. 10-Wake Forest/23-Lehigh winner

South Region (Houston, March 26 and 28)

Buffalo, March 19 and 21
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Minnesota/17-Wichita State winner
8-Clemson vs. 9-St. Mary's/24-Jackson State winner

Spokane, March 19 and 21
4-Baylor vs. 13-Florida/20-Illinois State winner
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Memphis/21-Sam Houston State winner

New Orleans, March 18 and 20
3-Ohio State vs. 14-Dayton/19-Texas Tech winner
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Utah State/22-North Texas winner

Oklahoma City, March 18 and 20
2-New Mexico vs. 15-South Florida/Tulsa winner
7-Richmond vs. 10-Florida State/23-Belmont winner

West Region (Salt Lake City, March 25 and 27)

Jacksonville, March 19 and 21
1-Duke vs. 16-Illinois/17-St. John's winner
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Marquette/24-Arkansas Pine-Bluff winner

San Jose, March 18 and 20
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Murray State/20-New Mexico State winner
5-BYU vs. 12-Arizona State/21-Montana winner

Providence, March 18 and 20
3-Temple vs. 14-Seton Hall/19-Northeastern winner
6-Texas vs. 11-California/22-UC-Santa Barbara winner

Buffalo, March 19 and 21
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Cincinnati/18-Weber State winner
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Old Dominion/23-Robert Morris winner

Most teams:

Big East: 13 teams
Big 12: 8
ACC: 7
Atlantic 10: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 6
Conference USA: 5
Colonial: 4
WAC: 4
Mountain West: 4
Pac 10: 3
West Coast: 3
Missouri Valley: 3
America East: 2
Horizon: 2
MAAC: 2
Atlantic Sun: 2
Big Sky: 2
Big South: 2
NEC: 2
SWAC: 2
--
http://www.seanbartel.com


Wednesday
Mar102010

Bartel's Brackets Podcast #4 -- Who is in? Who is hoping?

Sean Bartel turns in another stellar performance as we cover a lot of territory in college hoops.  Only 4 days until Selection Sunday!

Topics for tonight's podcast:

  • A lot of Kentucky questions including what UK fans need to root for to keep Wall and Cousins next year.
  • Best coaching jobs this year including Baylor's Scott Drew and USF's Stan Heath.
  • Who are the #2 seeds?  Purdue?  New Mexico?
  • How the small conferences hurt their chances to get more teams in.
  • Was Steve Alford close to getting hired instead of Kelvin Sampson at IU?
  • Can PAC-10 just have one bid?
  • Can Mississippi State get in?
  • Expanding the tournament to 72 or 96 teams.
  • Plus Sean answers your questions in a jam packed podcast!

Take a listen!!

Bartel's Brackets 3.10.10

Wednesday
Mar102010

Bartel's Brackets Breakdown for 3.10.10

By Sean Bartel

East Region (Syracuse, March 25 and 27)

Milwaukee, March 19 and 21
1-Kentucky vs. 16-Quinnipiac
8-Missouri vs. 9-Notre Dame

Spokane, March 19 and 21
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Cornell
5-Butler vs. 12-San Diego State

New Orleans, March 18 and 20
3-Kansas State vs. 14-Wofford
6-Xavier vs. 11-Siena

Providence, March 18 and 20
2-Villanova vs. 15-Vermont
7-Northern Iowa vs. 10-Virginia Tech

Midwest Region (St. Louis, March 26 and 28)

Oklahoma City, March 18 and 20
1-Kansas vs. 16-Morgan State
8-Louisville vs. 9-UTEP

San Jose, March 18 and 20
4-Maryland vs. 13-Kent State
5-Michigan State vs. 12-Washington

Jacksonville, March 19 and 21
3-Pittsburgh vs. 14-Oakland
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Rhode Island

Milwaukee, March 19 and 21
2-Purdue vs. 15-East Tennessee State
7-UNLV vs. 10-Wake Forest

South Region (Houston, March 26 and 28)

Buffalo, March 19 and 21
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Lehigh/Jackson State winner
8-Clemson vs. 9-St. Mary's

Spokane, March 19 and 21
4-Baylor vs. 13-Florida
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Memphis

New Orleans, March 18 and 20
3-Ohio State vs. 14-Sam Houston
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Utah State

Oklahoma City, March 18 and 20
2-New Mexico vs. 15-North Texas
7-Richmond vs. 10-Florida State

West Region (Salt Lake City, March 25 and 27)

Jacksonville, March 19 and 21
1-Duke vs. 16-Winthrop
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Marquette

San Jose, March 18 and 20
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Murray State
5-BYU vs. 12-Arizona State

Providence, March 18 and 20
3-Temple vs. 14-Weber State
6-Texas vs. 11-California

Buffalo, March 19 and 21
2-West Virginia vs. 15-UC-Santa Barbara
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Old Dominion

Conference Breakdown:

Big East: 8 Teams
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic Ten: 4
Mountain West: 4
Pac-10: 3
West Coast: 2
Conference USA: 2

Last Four Teams In: Arizona State, Memphis, Florida, San Diego State
Last Four Teams Out: Dayton, Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, Mississippi
--
http://www.seanbartel.com


Thursday
Mar042010

This Week in College Hoops

By Sean Bartel

In our podcast earlier this week, I told Lance I wouldn't shed a tear
if Butler or Northern Iowa lost in their conference tournaments, thus
taking one at-large berth from an undeserving team on the bubble. And
that's true, although I never told him the reason: I was born without
tear ducts.

That's a lie - I had my eyes taken out last week. Now I'm sure it all
makes sense.

I seem to say this every year, but this one counts more than ever: The
bubble teams are worse than ever before. Here's why: When I make a
bracket each week, I post whoever's in first place of their conference
as the automatic bid, then add in all the obvious at-large berth teams
remaining. Then I stack all the bubble teams and compare their resumes
to see who's in and out. Usually, when I start this process, there are
between 10-12 spots left in the draw.

This week I had 16, and even that number might be conservative.

Think of it this way: In other years, teams fighting for a tourney
berth were Mr. Bubble, a brand-name product that soothed your body
after a long day of work.

This year's crop? It's like the homeless guy farting in the bathtub,
trying to make a jacuzzi.

Take Louisville. UofL is 19-11 with a good RPI of 36 and a
non-conference RPI of 22. The Cards won huge games at Syracuse and
swept UConn. Yet for all team Pitino's good, there's a ton of bad: 5-7
record on the road/neutral court, 3-7 against the RPI top 50, 7-10
against the RPI top 100, and a puzzling home loss to Western Carolina.
Yes, the Cards beat fellow bubblers Notre Dame and Cincinnati, but
both were at home.

In another year, Louisville would be in severe trouble. Now? While
they're not safe, they're ahead of a handful of teams.

One of them is Connecticut. Any other year, the Huskies would be dead
- 3-8 against the RPI top 50, 3-9 on the road/neutral court, and a 5-7
record the last 12 games. But no one else seems to want the last few
spots, so UConn, with wins against West Virginia, Texas and at
Villanova, are still alive. Barely.

Or Dayton. The Flyers blew out of the gate with wins over Georgia Tech
and Old Dominion, and by mid-January looked like a solid tourney bet.
Now? They've lost three of five, can't seem to win a road game, are
5-8 against the RPI top 100, and has everyone wondering: What the heck
happened?

And the list goes on and on. Florida with its 3-7 Top 50 RPI record.
Mississippi State with five losses outside the RPI top 100. Illinois
with a hideous 72 RPI and five losses on neutral courts. Charlotte
with five losses its last six games. Virginia Tech with a
non-conference RPI of 339 (out of 347 teams).

It makes you wonder: Does anyone really want these last few spots in
the tournament?

This is the point when Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is supposed to tell
us we should let MORE teams into the tournament, because, as he's said
"UConn (and teams like them) can win games in the tournament". Which
would be odd, since they barely seem able to win games in the regular
season.

Here's hoping we have a few upsets so we can trim the number of mediocre squads.

Other thoughts ...

-- Speaking of bubble teams, Florida has a chance to extend a pretty
dubious streak. If the Gators miss the NCAA tournament (and with a 3-7
top 50 RPI record and 3-4 record its last four games, that seems
possible), Florida will miss the tournament for the third straight
year. Why is that significant? Because the Gators won TWO STRAIGHT
national titles just a few seasons ago. Since the NCAA expanded the
tournament to 64 teams in 1985, no team (other than Florida) has won
the title, then missed anything more than the next year's tournament;
in fact, before the Gators, 18 straight champions had qualified for
the tournament the following year.

The only three teams in the 64/65-team tournament era to miss the
dance the next year? Louisville in 1987 (barely bumped off the
bubble), Kansas in 1989 (on probation and thus wasn't allowed to
compete) and the Gators.

The longest streaks of missed tournaments following a title?
Technically it's CCNY (City College of New York), who won the
tournament in 1950, and hasn't been back since ... but they had a
little point shaving scandal in 1951, and never really played division
one hoops again. Stanford won the title in 1942, then missed the
tournament the next 47 years (although the fields were much smaller
then). Oregon missed it 20 straight years after winning the vaunted
1939 title, and Indiana for 12 straight after winning the 1940 title,
but those were mainly 8-team fields.

In modern history, North Carolina State won the 1974 title, then
didn't return until 1980, but even they have an excuse: The ACC used
to ONLY send its tournament champion to the big dance, and North
Carolina ruled a number of years the Wolfpack didn't go.

Basically this is a long way of saying Florida has done nothing to
capitalize on its national title run. Goooooooooooooo Gators!

-- Your eyes might have bugged out when you saw New Mexico as a two
seed. If so, do this: Find some duct tape, and make sure you put the
tape on the back so they stick in your head.

The Lobos have a great resume. Beyond the 28-3 record, they have an
RPI of 8, a non-conference RPI of 44, 7-2 record against the RPI top
50, 11-2 against the RPI top 100, a sweep of BYU, wins over Texas A&M,
Dayton, at UNLV, and San Diego State. It might have taken a few years,
but Steve Alford has finally found a college home.

-- I've been on the UAB bandwagon all year, but the trouble playing in
Conference USA is you have no margin for error. Case in point?
Wednesday's loss to Memphis. Certainly not a bad one, even at home,
but UAB doesn't have a ton left to beef up its resume. The win against
Cincinnati doesn't look as good now, and a 1-2 record against the RPI
top 50 is mediocre at best. Best advice for Mike Davis's boys? Win the
conference tournament.

-- Interesting stat of the week: Only 13 coaches have won two national
titles (yes Gainesville, your recently underachieving coach Billy
Donovan is one of them). Indiana is the only school with two (Bob
Knight with 3, and Branch McCracken with two). If somehow Mike
Krzyzewski wins his fourth title this year, he'd tie Adolph Rupp for
second all time (John Wooden is first with ten). Bill Self (Kansas)
and Jim Boeheim (Syracuse) look to be the only coaches seriously
threatening to win their second title.

-- Looking for a player to root for? Jimmer Fredette of BYU is my new
favorite, if only because I've never heard or seen the name Jimmer.

-- Here's a little more info on this soon-to-be horrendous 96-team
NCAA tournament: The upside is, it seems, the field would include all
regular season champions as well as tournament champions. So for
someone like Siena, who will certainly be bubble watching if they
don't win the MAAC, it could be good news.

Of course, the bad news for everyone else is the watering down of the
regular season, the utter inflation of an already-big enough
tournament, and the end of fun bracketology. But that's for another
time.

-- Picks for the weekend conference tourneys:

Big South: Coastal Carolina
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
MVC: Wichita State
MAAC: Iona
OVC: Murray State (my sleeper for the NCAAs)
Summit: IUPUI
Patriot: Lehigh
West Coast: St. Mary's
Sun Belt: North Texas

Until next time.


--
http://www.seanbartel.com

Wednesday
Mar032010

March 3rd Bartel's Brackets -- Who is in and what seed?

EAST - Syracuse, March 25 and 27

Milwaukee, March 19 and 21
1-Kentucky vs. 16-Stony Brook
8-Marquette vs. 9-Georgia Tech

San Jose, March 18 and 20
4-BYU vs. 13-Cornell
5-Texas vs. 12-Old Dominion

New Orleans, March 18 and 20
3-Temple vs. 14-Wofford
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Florida

Providence, March 18 and 20
2-Villanova vs. 15-Morgan State
7-Maryland vs. 10-UAB

MIDWEST - St. Louis, March 26 and 28

Oklahoma City, March 18 and 20
1-Kansas vs. 16-Belmont
8-Clemson vs. 9-Louisville

Spokane, March 19 and 21
4-Butler vs. 13-Kent State
5-Michigan State vs. 12-UTEP

Providence, March 18 and 20
3-Pittsburgh vs. 14-Oakland
6-Xavier vs. 11-Virginia Tech

Milwaukee, March 19 and 21
2-Purdue vs. 15-Troy
7-Missouri vs. 10-Florida State

SOUTH - Houston, March 26 and 28

Buffalo, March 19 and 21
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Lehigh/Jackson State winner
8-Wake Forest vs. 9-Rhode Island

New Orleans, March 18 and 20
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Murray State
5-Baylor vs. 12-Siena

Jacksonville, March 19 and 21
3-Ohio State vs. 14-Sam Houston
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Mississippi State

Oklahoma City, March 18 and 20
2-Kansas State vs. 15-Coastal Carolina
7-Richmond vs. 10-St. Mary's

WEST - Salt Lake City, March 25 and 27

Jacksonville, March 19 and 21
1-Duke vs. 16-Robert Morris
8-UNLV vs. 9-Northern Iowa

Spokane, March 19 and 21
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Utah State
5-Tennessee vs. 12-Connecticut

Buffalo, March 19 and 21
3-West Virginia vs. 14-Weber State
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-Dayton

San Jose, March 18 and 20
2-New Mexico vs. 15-UC-Santa Barbara
7-Oklahoma State vs. 10-California

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East: 8 teams
ACC, Big 12: 7
SEC, Atlantic 10: 5
Big Ten: 4
Mountain West: 3
West Coast Conference, Conference USA: 2
Pac 10: 1
--
http://www.seanbartel.com


Monday
Mar012010

Bartel's Brackets Podcast #3 -- Breaking down College Hoops

How will Purdue’s Robbie Hummel being out affect the Boilers seeding?  With four of the top five teams losing last week, who are the current number one seeds?  Kentucky’s loss to Tennessee…blip on the radar or bigger problem?  How many teams get in from the Big East?  What about multiple bids from smaller conferences?  College Basketball guru Sean Bartel takes on all of those questions and more including some of the top young coaches in the country and answers your questions.

It is all in podcast #3 of Bartel’s Brackets.  Take a listen and ask Sean a question in the comments section below:



Bartel's Brackets Podcast #3 3.1.10

Thursday
Feb252010

Bartel Banters about College Hoops

By Sean Bartel

In our podcast, Lance asked me a question about Butler that I didn't answer well.

The problem is this: I don't understand English. I just started speaking the language on Monday. D'oh.

Here's the situation: Most college hoops fans will look at Butler, currently ranked 10th in the coaches' poll and 15th in the AP one, then see my seeding at only five and think "What's the deal?".

So, here ya go.

First off, the brackets I put together, similar to other bracketologists, are what I think the committee will do, not my personal opinion; if it was my choice, Indiana would be a 5-seed (I'm kidding - IU wouldn't be in the CBI even in my wildest dreams).

Butler puts together an impressive resume - a 17-game win streak; a perfect record in the Horizon league; and a non-conference RPI ranked fourth out of 347 teams. They beat Ohio State, Xavier, and Saturday crushed Siena.

Ironically, though, its Butler's two biggest wins that might actually hinder them.

The Bulldogs are 3-3 against the RPI's top 50 teams, losing to Georgetown, Clemson and at UAB. The win against Ohio State is great, but it came in the Buckeyes' first game without star Evan Turner. The Xavier win? That came with controversy, when Gordon Hayward hit a shot with two seconds left, then the officials, realizing a game-clock error, said there was no time left, and didn't give Xavier a chance to win the game.

Other factors: Since Butler's conference competition will be lower than other teams it's facing to get a high seed in the tournament, the top 50 RPI record will be huge. The Bulldogs' 3-3 record is around the same as Wisconsin, Baylor, Temple, etc., so they'll need something to put them over the top if they want a 4- or even a 3-seed.

Again, this is not fair - there's nothing Butler can do about Turner's injury, and nothing they could do about the game-clock miscue. But they stand as the Bulldogs' two biggest wins come with somewhat of an asterisk, and history shows the committee doesn't look favorably on that.

Other notes ...

-- Everyone seems to think Northern Iowa is guaranteed in the NCAA tournament. My advice? Win the MVC tourney. You were fine before losing to Evansville on Tuesday. Now? Things are iffy.

Here's why.

On paper, Northern Iowa looks fantastic: An RPI of 24; a 2-0 record against the RPI top 50; 8-1 record against the top 100.

But look deeper: The Panthers have two horrendous losses to DePaul and Evansville, and one bad loss to Bradley. Generally, at-large teams are given some leeway, but tourney teams shouldn't lose to DePaul and UE (granted, the Panthers didn't have Jordan Eglseder against the Aces, but they still should have won).

The two top-50 wins? Against good, non-BCS teams in Siena and Old Dominion, but keep in mind the Saints are 0-4 against the RPI top 50, while ODU is just 1-4. And the Panthers' non-conference RPI of 216 is not going to help them.

Again, everything seems simple on paper, but the committee has done stranger things. When you're a non-BCS school, you do everything to make sure you're not left with your pants down on Selection Sunday.

-- Just curious: Does any team have a stranger regular season win/loss sheet than Evansville? The Aces have lost 17 of their last 19 games. The only two wins in 2010? Both have severely damaged teams in their own conference, beating Wichita State (and effectively ending the Shockers' at-large hopes) and Tuesday's win over UNI.

-- By the way, I didn't get Lance my brackets before our podcast, so we didn't talk about my potential second-round matchup of Kentucky and Louisville. Yes, this would make everyone in the Commonwealth go crazy. No, this wasn't done on purpose. Honestly, it was random - I didn't even realize it until all the brackets were made.

Don't fall into a trap of thinking the committee worries about these sexy matchups. Louisville was only place in the East because that was the only place it could go. By tournament rules, you can only have two schools from the same conference in each region, and they have to be placed on opposite sides of the bracket (so as to not repeat regular-season matchups); the earliest they can play is the regional finals. In this instance, Villanova and Marquette are in the West, Syracuse and Georgetown in the South, West Virginia and Connecticut in the Midwest, and Pittsburgh in the East. Louisville found a slot there.

Keep in mind: While Louisville/Kentucky would get HUGE ratings in Kentucky, Lexington and Louisville are regularly two of the highest-rated markets for the tournament for CBS (Louisville is usually number one, I believe). If the 'Cats or Cards played Alaska-Anchorage, ratings inside Kentucky would be sky high. So CBS won't go out of its way to make sexy matchups. They know dedicated fans will watch regardless.

-- My confidence in Louisville last week? Gone after Tuesday's loss to Georgetown. The Cards finish at Connecticut, at Marquette, and home to Syracuse. They have to win two of those games to feel confident. Just 2-6 against the RPI top 50 and 6-9 against the RPI top 100 is a surefire way to miss the dance.

-- Favorite new website? EvilPitt.com. Enjoy.

-- Interesting tidbit of the week: The teams that have the most NCAA tournament appearances? Kentucky (50), UCLA (43), North Carolina (41), Kansas (38), and Indiana and Louisville (35). If Louisville misses the dance? Four of the six most successful teams ever will be out of the tournament (unless IU, UCLA or UNC win the conference tournament). Not sure if that's ever happened.   

-- Two teams on the bubble represent the most astounding comparison I've ever seen. Virginia Tech has been strong inside the ACC - 8-5 with wins at home against Clemson and Wake Forest. Yet the Hokies have just an RPI of 48, and have maybe the worst non-conference RPI I've ever seen for a bubble team: 335.

There's only 347 teams in Division One.

Then you have California, moving closer to its first Pac-10 title in half a century. They're 18-9, with an RPI of 24, and the number one ranked non-conference RPI in all of hoops. The problem? While they played a tough schedule out of conference, they lost nearly every game. The Bears are 0-4 against the RPI top 50, and the Pac-10 wins? They don't matter as much, since the league is fairly miserable.

On paper? It's a good way for the NCAA to make a statement for a tough non-conference schedule. But as you see, there are a ton of other factors. Will be interesting to see how each school plays this out.

-- Big bubble games to watch on Saturday: Cincinnati at West Virginia; Maryland at Virginia Tech; Tulane at UAB; Minnesota at Illinois; Florida at Georgia; UNLV at Air Force; UMass at Dayton; Charlotte at George Washington.

More next week. 
--
http://www.seanbartel.com

Tuesday
Feb232010

Bartel's Brackets Podcast #2 -- Breaking down NCAA Hoops!

Upsets, Bracket Busters, and late season runs towards the Tournament.  That is a few of the topics that Sean Bartel and I discuss in Podcast #2 of Bartel’s Brackets.  Sean has released his latest NCAA Bracket projections.

How does Villanova sliding hurt Kentucky?  Is Illinois in?  What is a mid-major?!  How high can Butler be seeded?  What about Travis Ford’s Oklahoma State Cowboys?  Is Purdue a legit #1 seed?

All of that and much much more on this Bartel’s Brackets podcast.  Hit play and enjoy! 

Bartel's Brackets Podcast #2  2.23.10

Please send in your questions in the comments section below to get Sean’s opinions for podcast #3!

 

Bartel's Brackets 2.23.10 Edition

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, March 25 and 27)

Milwaukee (March 19 and 21)
1-Kentucky vs. 16-Lehigh/Jackson State winner
8-Missouri vs. 9-Louisville

Spokane (March 19 and 21)
4-Temple vs. 13-Cornell
5-Wake Forest vs. 12-Siena

Providence (March 18 and 20)
3-Pittsburgh vs. 14-Oakland
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Dayton

Jacksonville (March 19 and 21)
2-Duke vs. 15-Morgan State
7-Northern Iowa vs. 10-Illinois

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, March 26 and 28)

Oklahoma City (March 18 and 20)
1-Kansas vs. 16-Stony Brook
8-UNLV vs. 9-Clemson

New Orleans (March 18 and 20)
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Kent State
5-Butler vs. 12-Connecticut

New Orleans (March 18 and 20)
3-Ohio State vs. 14-Wofford
6-Richmond vs. 11-UAB

Buffalo (March 19 and 21)
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Jacksonville
7-Maryland vs. 10-Florida

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston March 26 and 28)

Buffalo (March 19 and 21)
1-Syracuse vs. 16-North Texas
8-Georgia Tech vs. 9-Rhode Island

Spokane (March 19 and 21)
4-Texas vs. 13-Murray State
5-Wisconsin vs. 12-UTEP

Jacksonville (March 19 and 21)
3-Georgetown vs. 14-Sam Houston
6-Michigan State vs. 11-St. Mary's

Oklahoma City (March 18 and 20)
2-Kansas State vs. 15-Coastal Carolina
7-Tennessee vs. 10-Clemson

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, March 25 and 27)

Milwaukee (March 19 and 21)
1-Purdue vs. 16-Robert Morris
8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Old Dominion

San Jose (March 18 and 20)
4-BYU vs. 13-Utah State
5-Baylor vs. 12-Marquette

San Jose (March 18 and 20)
3-New Mexico vs. 14-Weber State
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-California

Providence (March 18 and 20)
2-Villanova vs. 15-UC-Santa Barbara
7-Xavier vs. 10-Oklahoma State

LAST FOUR IN: UConn, Marquette, Dayton, St. Mary's
LAST FOUR OUT: San Diego State, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Conference breakdown:

Big East: 8 teams
Big 12: 7
ACC: 7
Atlantic 10: 5
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
Mountain West: 3
Conference USA: 2
West Coast Conference: 2
Pac 10: 1

--
http://www.seanbartel.com