This Week in College Hoops

By Sean Bartel

In our podcast earlier this week, I told Lance I wouldn't shed a tear
if Butler or Northern Iowa lost in their conference tournaments, thus
taking one at-large berth from an undeserving team on the bubble. And
that's true, although I never told him the reason: I was born without
tear ducts.

That's a lie - I had my eyes taken out last week. Now I'm sure it all
makes sense.

I seem to say this every year, but this one counts more than ever: The
bubble teams are worse than ever before. Here's why: When I make a
bracket each week, I post whoever's in first place of their conference
as the automatic bid, then add in all the obvious at-large berth teams
remaining. Then I stack all the bubble teams and compare their resumes
to see who's in and out. Usually, when I start this process, there are
between 10-12 spots left in the draw.

This week I had 16, and even that number might be conservative.

Think of it this way: In other years, teams fighting for a tourney
berth were Mr. Bubble, a brand-name product that soothed your body
after a long day of work.

This year's crop? It's like the homeless guy farting in the bathtub,
trying to make a jacuzzi.

Take Louisville. UofL is 19-11 with a good RPI of 36 and a
non-conference RPI of 22. The Cards won huge games at Syracuse and
swept UConn. Yet for all team Pitino's good, there's a ton of bad: 5-7
record on the road/neutral court, 3-7 against the RPI top 50, 7-10
against the RPI top 100, and a puzzling home loss to Western Carolina.
Yes, the Cards beat fellow bubblers Notre Dame and Cincinnati, but
both were at home.

In another year, Louisville would be in severe trouble. Now? While
they're not safe, they're ahead of a handful of teams.

One of them is Connecticut. Any other year, the Huskies would be dead
- 3-8 against the RPI top 50, 3-9 on the road/neutral court, and a 5-7
record the last 12 games. But no one else seems to want the last few
spots, so UConn, with wins against West Virginia, Texas and at
Villanova, are still alive. Barely.

Or Dayton. The Flyers blew out of the gate with wins over Georgia Tech
and Old Dominion, and by mid-January looked like a solid tourney bet.
Now? They've lost three of five, can't seem to win a road game, are
5-8 against the RPI top 100, and has everyone wondering: What the heck
happened?

And the list goes on and on. Florida with its 3-7 Top 50 RPI record.
Mississippi State with five losses outside the RPI top 100. Illinois
with a hideous 72 RPI and five losses on neutral courts. Charlotte
with five losses its last six games. Virginia Tech with a
non-conference RPI of 339 (out of 347 teams).

It makes you wonder: Does anyone really want these last few spots in
the tournament?

This is the point when Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is supposed to tell
us we should let MORE teams into the tournament, because, as he's said
"UConn (and teams like them) can win games in the tournament". Which
would be odd, since they barely seem able to win games in the regular
season.

Here's hoping we have a few upsets so we can trim the number of mediocre squads.

Other thoughts ...

-- Speaking of bubble teams, Florida has a chance to extend a pretty
dubious streak. If the Gators miss the NCAA tournament (and with a 3-7
top 50 RPI record and 3-4 record its last four games, that seems
possible), Florida will miss the tournament for the third straight
year. Why is that significant? Because the Gators won TWO STRAIGHT
national titles just a few seasons ago. Since the NCAA expanded the
tournament to 64 teams in 1985, no team (other than Florida) has won
the title, then missed anything more than the next year's tournament;
in fact, before the Gators, 18 straight champions had qualified for
the tournament the following year.

The only three teams in the 64/65-team tournament era to miss the
dance the next year? Louisville in 1987 (barely bumped off the
bubble), Kansas in 1989 (on probation and thus wasn't allowed to
compete) and the Gators.

The longest streaks of missed tournaments following a title?
Technically it's CCNY (City College of New York), who won the
tournament in 1950, and hasn't been back since ... but they had a
little point shaving scandal in 1951, and never really played division
one hoops again. Stanford won the title in 1942, then missed the
tournament the next 47 years (although the fields were much smaller
then). Oregon missed it 20 straight years after winning the vaunted
1939 title, and Indiana for 12 straight after winning the 1940 title,
but those were mainly 8-team fields.

In modern history, North Carolina State won the 1974 title, then
didn't return until 1980, but even they have an excuse: The ACC used
to ONLY send its tournament champion to the big dance, and North
Carolina ruled a number of years the Wolfpack didn't go.

Basically this is a long way of saying Florida has done nothing to
capitalize on its national title run. Goooooooooooooo Gators!

-- Your eyes might have bugged out when you saw New Mexico as a two
seed. If so, do this: Find some duct tape, and make sure you put the
tape on the back so they stick in your head.

The Lobos have a great resume. Beyond the 28-3 record, they have an
RPI of 8, a non-conference RPI of 44, 7-2 record against the RPI top
50, 11-2 against the RPI top 100, a sweep of BYU, wins over Texas A&M,
Dayton, at UNLV, and San Diego State. It might have taken a few years,
but Steve Alford has finally found a college home.

-- I've been on the UAB bandwagon all year, but the trouble playing in
Conference USA is you have no margin for error. Case in point?
Wednesday's loss to Memphis. Certainly not a bad one, even at home,
but UAB doesn't have a ton left to beef up its resume. The win against
Cincinnati doesn't look as good now, and a 1-2 record against the RPI
top 50 is mediocre at best. Best advice for Mike Davis's boys? Win the
conference tournament.

-- Interesting stat of the week: Only 13 coaches have won two national
titles (yes Gainesville, your recently underachieving coach Billy
Donovan is one of them). Indiana is the only school with two (Bob
Knight with 3, and Branch McCracken with two). If somehow Mike
Krzyzewski wins his fourth title this year, he'd tie Adolph Rupp for
second all time (John Wooden is first with ten). Bill Self (Kansas)
and Jim Boeheim (Syracuse) look to be the only coaches seriously
threatening to win their second title.

-- Looking for a player to root for? Jimmer Fredette of BYU is my new
favorite, if only because I've never heard or seen the name Jimmer.

-- Here's a little more info on this soon-to-be horrendous 96-team
NCAA tournament: The upside is, it seems, the field would include all
regular season champions as well as tournament champions. So for
someone like Siena, who will certainly be bubble watching if they
don't win the MAAC, it could be good news.

Of course, the bad news for everyone else is the watering down of the
regular season, the utter inflation of an already-big enough
tournament, and the end of fun bracketology. But that's for another
time.

-- Picks for the weekend conference tourneys:

Big South: Coastal Carolina
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
MVC: Wichita State
MAAC: Iona
OVC: Murray State (my sleeper for the NCAAs)
Summit: IUPUI
Patriot: Lehigh
West Coast: St. Mary's
Sun Belt: North Texas

Until next time.


--
http://www.seanbartel.com

Comments

[Blaine F]

I assume that with the win today, Louisville is completely free of bubble talk when it comes to making the NCAA tourney. I am curious to know what you think the highest or lowest seed range could be for them. If they lose in the first game of the Big East, I think they will probably be a 10 seed. Your thoughts?