Bartel Banters about College Hoops
Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 2:27PM 
By Sean Bartel
In our podcast, Lance asked me a question about Butler that I didn't answer well.
The problem is this: I don't understand English. I just started speaking the language on Monday. D'oh.
Here's the situation: Most college hoops fans will look at Butler, currently ranked 10th in the coaches' poll and 15th in the AP one, then see my seeding at only five and think "What's the deal?".
So, here ya go.
First off, the brackets I put together, similar to other bracketologists, are what I think the committee will do, not my personal opinion; if it was my choice, Indiana would be a 5-seed (I'm kidding - IU wouldn't be in the CBI even in my wildest dreams).
Butler puts together an impressive resume - a 17-game win streak; a perfect record in the Horizon league; and a non-conference RPI ranked fourth out of 347 teams. They beat Ohio State, Xavier, and Saturday crushed Siena.
Ironically, though, its Butler's two biggest wins that might actually hinder them.
The Bulldogs are 3-3 against the RPI's top 50 teams, losing to Georgetown, Clemson and at UAB. The win against Ohio State is great, but it came in the Buckeyes' first game without star Evan Turner. The Xavier win? That came with controversy, when Gordon Hayward hit a shot with two seconds left, then the officials, realizing a game-clock error, said there was no time left, and didn't give Xavier a chance to win the game.
Other factors: Since Butler's conference competition will be lower than other teams it's facing to get a high seed in the tournament, the top 50 RPI record will be huge. The Bulldogs' 3-3 record is around the same as Wisconsin, Baylor, Temple, etc., so they'll need something to put them over the top if they want a 4- or even a 3-seed.
Again, this is not fair - there's nothing Butler can do about Turner's injury, and nothing they could do about the game-clock miscue. But they stand as the Bulldogs' two biggest wins come with somewhat of an asterisk, and history shows the committee doesn't look favorably on that.
Other notes ...
-- Everyone seems to think Northern Iowa is guaranteed in the NCAA tournament. My advice? Win the MVC tourney. You were fine before losing to Evansville on Tuesday. Now? Things are iffy.
Here's why.
On paper, Northern Iowa looks fantastic: An RPI of 24; a 2-0 record against the RPI top 50; 8-1 record against the top 100.
But look deeper: The Panthers have two horrendous losses to DePaul and Evansville, and one bad loss to Bradley. Generally, at-large teams are given some leeway, but tourney teams shouldn't lose to DePaul and UE (granted, the Panthers didn't have Jordan Eglseder against the Aces, but they still should have won).
The two top-50 wins? Against good, non-BCS teams in Siena and Old Dominion, but keep in mind the Saints are 0-4 against the RPI top 50, while ODU is just 1-4. And the Panthers' non-conference RPI of 216 is not going to help them.
Again, everything seems simple on paper, but the committee has done stranger things. When you're a non-BCS school, you do everything to make sure you're not left with your pants down on Selection Sunday.
-- Just curious: Does any team have a stranger regular season win/loss sheet than Evansville? The Aces have lost 17 of their last 19 games. The only two wins in 2010? Both have severely damaged teams in their own conference, beating Wichita State (and effectively ending the Shockers' at-large hopes) and Tuesday's win over UNI.
-- By the way, I didn't get Lance my brackets before our podcast, so we didn't talk about my potential second-round matchup of Kentucky and Louisville. Yes, this would make everyone in the Commonwealth go crazy. No, this wasn't done on purpose. Honestly, it was random - I didn't even realize it until all the brackets were made.
Don't fall into a trap of thinking the committee worries about these sexy matchups. Louisville was only place in the East because that was the only place it could go. By tournament rules, you can only have two schools from the same conference in each region, and they have to be placed on opposite sides of the bracket (so as to not repeat regular-season matchups); the earliest they can play is the regional finals. In this instance, Villanova and Marquette are in the West, Syracuse and Georgetown in the South, West Virginia and Connecticut in the Midwest, and Pittsburgh in the East. Louisville found a slot there.
Keep in mind: While Louisville/Kentucky would get HUGE ratings in Kentucky, Lexington and Louisville are regularly two of the highest-rated markets for the tournament for CBS (Louisville is usually number one, I believe). If the 'Cats or Cards played Alaska-Anchorage, ratings inside Kentucky would be sky high. So CBS won't go out of its way to make sexy matchups. They know dedicated fans will watch regardless.
-- My confidence in Louisville last week? Gone after Tuesday's loss to Georgetown. The Cards finish at Connecticut, at Marquette, and home to Syracuse. They have to win two of those games to feel confident. Just 2-6 against the RPI top 50 and 6-9 against the RPI top 100 is a surefire way to miss the dance.
-- Favorite new website? EvilPitt.com. Enjoy.
-- Interesting tidbit of the week: The teams that have the most NCAA tournament appearances? Kentucky (50), UCLA (43), North Carolina (41), Kansas (38), and Indiana and Louisville (35). If Louisville misses the dance? Four of the six most successful teams ever will be out of the tournament (unless IU, UCLA or UNC win the conference tournament). Not sure if that's ever happened.
-- Two teams on the bubble represent the most astounding comparison I've ever seen. Virginia Tech has been strong inside the ACC - 8-5 with wins at home against Clemson and Wake Forest. Yet the Hokies have just an RPI of 48, and have maybe the worst non-conference RPI I've ever seen for a bubble team: 335.
There's only 347 teams in Division One.
Then you have California, moving closer to its first Pac-10 title in half a century. They're 18-9, with an RPI of 24, and the number one ranked non-conference RPI in all of hoops. The problem? While they played a tough schedule out of conference, they lost nearly every game. The Bears are 0-4 against the RPI top 50, and the Pac-10 wins? They don't matter as much, since the league is fairly miserable.
On paper? It's a good way for the NCAA to make a statement for a tough non-conference schedule. But as you see, there are a ton of other factors. Will be interesting to see how each school plays this out.
-- Big bubble games to watch on Saturday: Cincinnati at West Virginia; Maryland at Virginia Tech; Tulane at UAB; Minnesota at Illinois; Florida at Georgia; UNLV at Air Force; UMass at Dayton; Charlotte at George Washington.
More next week.
--
http://www.seanbartel.com
Reader Comments (3)
Hilarious Read!!! What conference do you enjoy watching the most? Which conference gets disrespected the most? Look forward to next podcast!
Mike
How would the bracket look if it was expanded to 96 teams? How would the byes work?
Steve Roeder
Greensboro, NC
IU isn't even competing. How long until I can yell at Crean? This is embarrassing.