Breaking Down This Week's College Hoops Bartel Style
Thursday, February 18, 2010 at 11:48AM 
As I mentioned in our podcast, no one knows more college basketball than my buddy Sean Bartel. There have been a lot games this week that have impacted the brackets and conference races. In this entry, Sean looks at the impact of those games, and answers your questions. If you have any topics or teams you would like Sean to discuss...leave a question in the comments section below.
Thanks for reading, and thanks to Sean Bartel to for his insight!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by Sean Bartel
This is the time of year when I sit in bed at night thinking about brackets, figuring out who's in, who's out, and why I'm wasting my time thinking about Old Dominion's non-conference power rankings.
Yes, I have no life. And I'm proud of it. These are the things that make my life go.
Selection Sunday is three weeks from Sunday. Simply, its my favorite day of the year. Once its over, I hibernate for eight months.
Feel free to donate any and all snacks and foods.
The fascinating thing about the finish of the season is the power of one game, or in many cases, the power of one night. You can see this by what happened Wednesday (the second-busiest night for college basketball each week). The scenario played out last night for two schools with very different resumes, Purdue and Louisville.
There really isn't a whole lot similar between the Boilermakers and Cardinals - Purdue is chasing a Big Ten title and a high seed in the NCAA tournament, while Louisville has been on the bubble for most of the season. But Purdue's thrilling road win at Ohio State and the Cardinals' exhilarating double-overtime win against Notre Dame changed a myriad of things for both schools.
Start with Purdue. On Monday I predicted them as a number two seed in the NCAA tournament. Certainly nothing to be ashamed of, but at the time they trailed both Ohio State and Michigan State in the Big Ten standings. The difficulty there? If Purdue legitimately wanted to challenge Villanova or Syracuse for a number one seed, it would be extremely tough to do without winning the Big Ten regular season title.
That all changed Wednesday. By winning in Columbus, the Boilermakers not only pulled ahead of OSU and within a half game of the Spartans (and tied in the loss column), but they now have a resume that can challenge Villanova and maybe Syracuse for a 1 seed: Road wins at MSU and OSU; a home win against Wisconsin; and great non-conference victories against Wake Forest, Tennessee and, most importantly, West Virginia. The Boilers are now 6-2 against the RPI top 50, 9-3 against the top 100, and if they win their last five games? (a legitimate possibility) They win the Big Ten outright.
Compare that to what happened if they lose Wednesday. Ohio State would not only have swept them, but basically would have not only a similar resume, but contend with Purdue for a high seed in the NCAA tournament. The Boilers chances at a number one seed? Likely would have been gone.
Then take Louisville. The Cards are smack dab in the middle of the bubble. A few wins or losses here or there could change their season. Good news is Sunday's win at Syracuse put them ahead of about four teams.
But everything could have changed Wednesday.
Notre Dame came into Freedom Hall without its superstar and first-team all Big East player Luke Harongody. Like the Cards, ND is on the bubble, but with a low RPI, the Irish are going to need a strong finish (and a win at Louisville) to make a case for the NCAA tournament. Without Harongody, this should have been an easy Cardinals win.
But nothing's come easy for Louisville this past year (both on and off the court). The Cards blew a 9-point lead, fell behind seven points in overtime before pulling out a thrilling double-OT win. By winning a game that could have really damaged them? The Cardinals stay on the good side of the bubble - UofL's RPI is 30, which routinely is good enough to get you into the NCAA tournament. The Cards' record against the RPI top 50 (3-5), top 100 (6-8), and on the road/neutral court (3-6) leave a little to be desired, but their non-conference RPI of 31 will help balance that out.
The win also negates what could have been a crushing loss. With road games at Connecticut and Marquette, as well as home dates against Georgetown and Syracuse remaining, a home loss to an already staggering Notre Dame squad could have knocked the Cards out of the tournament. Now? Their resume still stands above the other Big East bubble teams (Cincinnati, UConn, South Florida, Marquette, Seton Hall) as well as a number of others.
Of course, this all could change by this time Sunday. But as of today, Purdue's in the race for a one seed, and Louisville is still in good shape for the NCAA tournament.
Other thoughts:
-- From our podcast Tuesday, Alex Carney asked a good question about the Pac 10: "PAC-10 with just one bid? I know it is down, but a one bid league?".
It does seem awfully strange. In fact, I've looked at the Pac-10's numbers a dozen times trying to figure out if I (and a number of other bracketologists) are seeing this wrong.
My conclusion: The Pac-10 is about to have the worst BCS league performance since the tournament expanded to 64 times in 1986.
Look at these stats: The highest RPI to ever make the tournament? 74. Only three Pac-10 teams have an RPI below that (Cal, Washington, Arizona State). The league RPI is eighth (behind the other BCS conferences, the Mountain West and Atlantic 10), but against the other BCS conferences? The Pac-10 is a putrid 9-24. Compare that to the Big 12, which is 28-12 against its BCS foes, or the ACC, which is 24-21 against its BCS brethren.
If you take out the league's wins against Cal, the entire Pac-10, all ten teams, has four wins against the RPI's top 50 teams.
Four. Kentucky itself has four against the top 50. Kansas has eight. Duke has nine.
If Cal loses in the Pac-10 tournament, it MIGHT get an at-large berth (its the league's best shot), but even that is iffy: While Cal has the best non-conference schedule in the nation, it's 0-4 against the RPI top 50, 4-7 against the top 100, and 4-7 in road/neutral court games. Washington has the only other slight shot at an at-large berth, but with an RPI of 52 and a 1-7 road/neutral court record, it doesn't look promising.
Best-case scenario? Cal loses in the Pac-10 tourney and the league gets two teams. But don't expect either to last long in the big dance.
-- Kevin Chiznik asks "What are your thoughts on the tournament possibly moving to ESPN?" and Blaine F asks "For the past couple of weeks, I have been hearing tha the NCAA is thinking about enlarging the field to 90+ teams. I think that is way too much, what do you think?".
Strangely, and sadly, these two questions are linked.
After this year's tournament, the NCAA has an opt-out clause in its contract with CBS (the NCAA still has three years left on it's 11-year, $6 billion contract). It's puzzling to think why the NCAA would do this - in this economy, there doesn't seem a scenario where they'd get more money, but if you read between the lines in this Sports Business Journal article (http://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/article/64712), not only does the NCAA seemed primed to junk its current deal, but also expand the tournament to, gulp, 96 teams.
Grrrrrrrrrrreat. Snore.
The article basically points to a deal where CBS would share rights with a cable carrier, surprisingly here, Turner (TNT/TBS) instead of ESPN (although it does say ESPN, and FOX, might have interest). In the more is always better category, the NCAA would expand to 96 (or 68, although that seems unlikely) teams, and put the lions' share of games on cable, with the Final Four alternating between CBS and Turner.
All in all? This sounds like the worst idea of all time.
The 64/65-team tournament is the perfect size. The joy of the first few days of the tournament is seeing the smaller schools, the George Masons of the world, go up against the big guys. A 96-team tournament? The first few days would have the small schools playing each other. Didn't the NCAA learn anything from the TCU/Boise State Fiesta Bowl? And the only people that want a 96-team tournament?
Coaches who don't want to be fired. Of course, Jim Boeheim is what drives ratings.
Going back to ESPN wouldn't be a bad thing - the tournament ran much smoother when the first few days were on the world wide leader, but I'm not sure even they could add interest to a tournament THAT big.
Wake me up when it's over. We can't get more than two teams into football's playoffs, yet basketball wants to put almost 30% of its organization in. Dolts.
-- Remember Mike Davis? Don't look now, but he's about to make the NCAA tournament. This year's UAB team is Davis's best coaching performance (including his 2002 national title game run at Indiana), but it's a lot tougher to win in Birmingham. Still, UAB has a good RPI (31), good records against the RPI top 50 (2-0) and top 100 (6-4), wins over Butler and Cincinnati and no embarrassing losses. Looks like, barring a collapse, the Blazers are going to be back in the big dance.
Proves one thing: when coaches are put in good, comfortable settings, they can excel. Davis never was going to work at Indiana, but he's an Alabama guy, and UAB has been a great fit.
-- Same story: New Mexico not only is easily in the tournament, but coach Steve Alford won his 300th game Wednesday night (beating Wyoming). Think about that: 300. Didn't everyone say this guy was a failure at Iowa? Now he's pass the century mark three times. Beyond that, the Lobos have a great resume and could get as high as a three seed.
Remember four years ago, when Iowa ran him out for losing in the first round of the NCAA tournament, and Indiana hired Kelvin Sampson instead of Alford? Iowa has just one winning season, and hasn't made the dance since. Indiana? Well, you know the story there.
How'd those moves work out for you guys?
-- Note to Mississippi State fans (and all idiot who think taunting the other team's best player is a good idea): If you're gonna taunt someone via text, how about Kentucky's 12th man, not it's best big guy? You deserve it if you're left out Selection Sunday.
-- Think Evansville, even while mired in a tough season, isn't affecting the NCAA tournament? Think again. Wichita State had a SLIGHT shot at an at-large berth, until losing at Evansville on February 9th. Even with last night's win against the Aces, the Shockers' computer rating went down. Why? Because the Aces' rating is 264, and even with the win, WSU dropped from 50 to 52.
Life ain't fair, sometimes.
-- Despite my bragging on Purdue, Michigan State still leads the Big Ten by half a game. But Purdue's going to win the league.
-- Best game of the weekend was all set to be Northern Iowa's bracket-buster game against Old Dominion Friday night. And it still could be, but the game takes a hit with UNI's leading scorer, Jordan Eglseder, suspended three games for a DUI. Which proves one point: Don't drink and drive. You could ruin a high-rated bracket buster game.
-- If you're driving around Bowling Green Saturday morning at 11 or so, tune into BC Thomas on 1340-AM WBGN. We'll talk tournament stuff, and he'll do his best redux of "The Magic Hour" (if you don't remember that, you're way too young). --
http://www.seanbartel.com
Reader Comments (6)
I think Mike Davis could have worked out at IU if the situation was different. He almost won a national title, but still was never appreciated. I'm glad he is doing well at UAB! Nice story.
Steven,
Princeton
It was a great read. Since you have been following the season so far, let me ask you this...WHAT HAPPENED TO TEXAS??? If I remember correctly, they were ranked #2 and in line to get one of the four #1 seeds for the NCAA tourney. Then the sky fell on them and now, I don't even know if they will be in any good shape in two to three weeks.
Plus, what other big-name schools do you see as susceptible to losing in the first round this year? I know that matchups matter, but sometimes there are schools that just seem to have lost it going into the Tournament. I would think Texas would fit that category.
Do you think Jim Calhoun will coach UConn next year?
Karen Jantlen
Providence, RI
You mentioned in the interview you have done this for 20 years. What was your best and worst year? I tried to do this last year but I didn't seed the teams, I just tried picking the at large teams. It was fun...I will try to do the seeds this time. Thanks
Jeff
What are your thoughts on the Bracket Buster?
do you think Illinois is still in the dance?