2009 Sectional Predictions. Who ya got?!
Thursday, October 22, 2009 at 7:52PM 
I am hesitant to make playoff predictions for one major reason. I feel like I almost have to be a politician so I don’t honk anyone off. When I pick the winner out an 8 team bracket, 7 groups of fans are going to be upset.
That’s okay. I think the vast majority of people that have followed my site are smart enough to understand a prediction is nothing more than an educated guess. If I don’t pick your team, I am not slighting your school or players or coaches in anyway.
Enough sitting on the fence, let’s dive in.
Class 5A
This is the hardest one as far as knowledge of all of the teams. Only North and Castle are in our viewing area. The top three teams in the sectional are all 6-3: Castle, BNL, and Floyd Central. The Knights are the defending champs. However, 2008 HTF MVP of the Year Graham Saiko was one of many great seniors they lost. Floyd Central has only won one sectional in school history and that was in 1998. Jeffersonville is always better in the playoffs than the regular season. I think the winner of the opening round game between Jeff and Castle will win the sectional. I will be a homer on this pick.
Champion: Castle
Class 4A
This sectional boils down to one question: Reitz or Jasper? Central has had a winning season, but the Bears lost to Reitz 55-7. Boonville turned in its best regular season in years, but the Pioneers lost at home to Jasper 41-13. If either Central or Boonville beat Jasper and Reitz in back to back weeks, I will throw them a parade on my neighborhood street. Any team that pulls off that accomplishment would certainly deserve a celebration.
Northview is at home against Jasper tomorrow night. The Knights are 8-1, and will have mother nature on their side to neutralize the Cats. All of that said, no way Jasper loses. No way.
So…Panthers or the Cats? It is too bad they have to meet in the sectional. Could you imagine a semistate game between these two titans with the winner going to Lucas Oil Stadium. Jasper knocked off Reitz in a thriller a year ago at Alumni Stadium. However, this year the game will be at the Bowl. Reitz is playing on another level right now. They are averaging 40 points a game. I love both of these teams, but I think you have to make the Panthers the favorite…I think Tony Ahrens will like being 11-0 and being an underdog! He will be able to use that respect card all week at practice.
Champion: Reitz
Class 3A
I hated when Heritage Hills was shipped out of the Evansville area sectional. The Patriots have no competition year in and year out in Sectional 23. This is not Bob Clayton’s best team, but they will definitely win the sectional.
That brings us to Sectional 24. Memorial is the clear favorite. The Tigers have won five straight, and are coming off a trip to the state finals. I think Grant Gribbins is the best quarterback in the area(which is saying a lot with McIntosh, Ahrens, Prince, Welp). Gribbins is ranked sixth in the state in passing. He has over 2000 yards and 22 touchdowns. Jon Wandling is third in the state in receiving. The Tigers toughest two opponents will be Mt. Vernon and Bosse. I give the Dogs a punchers chance with their offense.
Champion: Memorial
Class 2A
This one is by far the most difficult to choose a winner. I could make a good argument for five of the teams in this sectional, including Forest Park. After starting 7-0, South Spencer has lost two tough games. The Rebels have a favorable draw. They will more than likely host Mater Dei in the second round. That will be a huge game. On the top of the bracket, I will take Southridge. The Raiders have won this sectional three straight years.
Who will win? Mater Dei has lost four straight games. I think the Cats will go one of two directions. They will mail it in, or they will rally and put it all together. I think MD can put it together. If the Cats can beat the Rebels (and that's a huge if!), they will likely have Southridge at the Bowl for the title game. The Raiders have gotten the best of the Cats lately. This is a really tough choice. I will be accused of being an Evansville homer, but I’m the furthest from that. I am going to take Mike Goebel in this one. If I am wrong, I think South Spencer wins.
Champion: Mater Dei
Class A
Tecumseh hasn’t had as strong of a season as the Braves did last year. The Braves play the same team that gave them their only loss a year ago: Linton. The Miners are always a powerhouse. North Daviess has played all 1A opponents but one. That was 3A Washington. The Hatchets knocked off the Cougars. Perry Central has a lot of playoff experience. The Commodores remember that stinging loss a year ago. They also have my favorite player in Mikey Wilkerson(no relation). I am going to say that North Daviess and Linton play for the championship. The Cougars handled the Miners easily the first time, and will again.
Champion: North Daviess
Feel free to tell me your opinion. I am sure 2A will be the most criticized. For good reason…there are a lot of great teams there. Thanks for reading, and leave your comment below.
Reader Comments (24)
I agree with every one of them...except for one. After covering a few of Southridge's games this year, I think the offense of Broc Roesner, Adam Messmer, and Kyle Holzbog can be a very tough thing to stop. Especially Holzbog, he always seems to escape tackles and get the tough yards to get the first down and keep the drive going. Nothing against South Spencer...they had a great season. And nothing against Mater Dei...great coach and I thnk Dane Mauer did a fine job for being put in as Q.B.....but I have to go with Southridge.
I would like to think that tomorrow's Mt. Vernon Memorial game will be a close one, unless that 'Cats decide its a good night to not show up. I suspect they have a better chance of winning the section than Bosse. Memorial remains the favorite, of course.
North Daviess ought to win the sectional. Reitz should beat Jasper too - if their performance in the Jungle is any indication.
The only time I saw Mater Dei play this season was their OT game vs Central early on. I thought they looked pretty good that night, except for a larger than normal number of turnovers. Their major weapon (on both sides of the ball) is Coudret, which means South Spencer has an advantage if they have two strong receiver. I'm not sure if this is the case.
Jasper will win. Best team in the state if you ask me.
Have to say that I agree with mostl of the picks.
Castle will be tested, but will win sectional 8.
Heritage Hills rolls into the regional only giving up 10 points the entire sectional.
Memorial gets tested by Bosse in the second round, but rolls in the finals.
North Daviess mops up the 1A.
In the 2A sectional, FP beats Mater Dei, opening up the door for South Spencer. In what will be one of the most physical games of the 2A tournament, Southridge defeats South Spencer for the title.
And now, for the main event....
In the 4A sectional, I see a meeting between Reitz and Jasper in the title game. That said, Jasper will have 2 extremely difficult games in Northview and Boonville, while Reitz walks through Seymour and either Central or Harrison. How spent will determine how close the game can be. This is the fastest Reitz team I can remember, and playing on turf only amplifies it. Reitz wins going away.
And now, for my non-viewing area special...
Has anyone noticed how the Sectional 7 in class 5A will possibly shake out?
Second round match up that will have huge implications on the entire tournament. Center Grove @ Columbus East. Too close to call because of where it will be played. Winner wins the sectional, and regional. If CG wins, a run to state is in the making. CE would go out in Semi-state against another MIC team.
JMO
Awesome comments everyone.
Jeremy well thought out! Keep contributing. That was a fantastic read.
Through dedicated hours of film study, drive, determination, and just general football knowledge, I present to you the state tournament lock for 2009. Awwhh shucks. Who am I kidding. These are just my best guesses from what I know of teams, past performances, present record, so forth and so forth.
5A
Sec. 1 While I won't sleep on Valpo as they have always been a tourney powerhouse, I can't get past Merrillville. MHS wins.
Sec. 2 Penn beats Mishawaka in the finals because of home field advantage.
Sec. 3 Kokomo beats Snyder on the back of their defense, rolls through the rest of the field.
Sec. 4 Here is the great collision. Carmel, Fishers, and Hamilton SE are all 8-1, with a matchup between Carmel and Fishers in the second round. The game will be at Fishers, and will be a battle for 48 minutes. Whoever comes out will win the sectional if they are not too beat up. That said, Hamilton SE takes the title on their own turf.
Sec. 5 Why even play it. Warren Central rolls to the title. (This sectional only has two teams with a winning record)
Sec. 6 Pike shocked everyone two years ago in winning this sectional. No reason they won't do it again.
Sec. 7 Winner will be the winner of the CG/CE game in Columbus. East generally has trouble with Indy area teams, even on their own field. CG takes the title.
Sec. 8 Castle struggles with Jeff, but rolls after that.
Reg. 1 Merrillville/Penn will be an intriguing match up in that it faces two traditional Northern Indiana powerhouses. Unfortunately, the Kingsmen come up short in a hard fought contest. Merrillville advances.
Reg. 2 Kokomo's lack of a big time opponent finally catches up with them, and the ride comes to an abrupt end. Hamilton SE early and often.
Reg. 3 Pike/Warren Central may be the best game of the regional round in 5A. I like the speed of Pike, but I also like the intensity that Hart has his players play with. (And yes, I am a homer. I like what Heart has done there since he left Reitz.) That said, Speed wins out on turf. Pike wins.
Reg. 4 Center Grove manhandled Castle last year, and Castle had a big team. They come into this matchup much smaller. CG not only has size, but speed as well. Center Grove wins, but Castle hangs with them for a half.
Semi 1 Merrillville is dreaming of that state title birth as they haven't been there since 1976, but it will not come to fruition this season. Hamilton SE rolls into Lucas Oil for a November showdown with....
Semi 2 Center Grove. As much as I like Pike, and the direction they are going in becoming a powerhouse football program in Indy, CG just has too much for them to handle.
State Finals Great matchup, but CG is once again just good enough to hold off the upset minded HSE club. Center Grove repeats as State Champions.
Class 4A
Sec. 9 Hammond Morton is one of the best teams in the state that no one has heard about outside of the Hammond area. Morton rolls.
Sec. 10 Best first round match up in the state. Lowell @ Plymouth. Plymouth wins, and wins out the sectional against lesser competition.
Sec. 11 One of the weakest sectional fields in the state, Dwenger goes nuts and wins it by a combined score of 176-17.
Sec. 12 Another first round matchup between two top ten teams. FW South Side @ Delta. That said nothing else in the field scares me. South wins to set up a regular season rematch with Dwenger.
Sec. 13 Has anyone looked at this sectional??? It should just be thrown out. Three match ups are 1-8 against 5-4, and one is 7-2 against 3-6. New Palestine is the favorite, but they will be cannon foder for the Sec. 14 winner.
Sec. 14 Now it gets interesting. We have Roncalli, Mooresville, Plainfield, and Cathedral in the same group. Roncalli meets Plainfield in the semis, while Cathedral gets Mooresville. If anyone has a shot a Cathedral here, it is Mooresville, but it won't happen this day. That puts Cathedral on the road for the finals, and the question is will it be in Indy or Plainfield. I believe it will be in Plainfield. That said, the golden domers roll in and spank em good.
Sec. 15 Only Match up here worth talking about is Shelbyville @ East Central in the sectional finals. Shelbyville has crumbled on the road in the big game in the past, and there is no reason to believe it will not happen again. However, I have my doubts about East Central. East Central wins in the game dubbed the ugliest game of the year.
Sec. 16 Look at my comments above. I stand by them.
Reg. 5 Plymouth ends Morton's best season in years in heartbreaking fashion.
Reg. 6 South played Dwenger the first game of the season and lost 42-19. I see a revenge factor as the game will be in FW. South breaks Dwenger's streak of regional titles this year.
Reg. 7 New Palestine wins this game over Cathedral if Cathedral's bus breaks down and they can't make the game. Other than that, it will not be close. Cathedral in a walk.
Reg. 8 The last time Reitz visited St. Leon, it snowed (1992). The boys in blue won in overtime 21-14, and Reitz nation was singing Christmas carols. While I can not predict the snow or the carols, I can say that a similar scenario will play out, with Reitz winning @ East Central.
Semi 3 Plymouth just keeps plugging along, while South will have to combat the let down of beating a conference rival to get here. Call me crazy, but I believe emotion is one of the best things a team can have. South wins to set up a November showdown at Lucas Oil with...
Semi 4 The winner of the best game in the state of Indiana at any class, and a game worthy enough to be put on ESPN. Cathedral has played at some great places, and against some great teams, but they have never had to go into "The Bowl". 12 to 15 thousand rabid fans cheering the boys in blue, and all of the old ghosts will be out. In a great game between the two programs with the most all time wins, Reitz gains one more on the Domers.
State Finals Just like two years ago, Reitz rolls in on the heels of a near defeat only to go out and defeat an out matched South High School squad. Two out of the last three isn't bad.
what a breakdown. what town are you from jeremy? which games do see?
Evansville born and raise. True blue panther fan, but I keep up with a lot of the schools in Indiana. Makes it fun for all involved when I can talk about teams from outside of the area.
Well my prediction went down pretty quick. I should have figured that nobody can ever predict how a game with North Posey would go. So now...I am going to go with Mater Dei.
Great win for Castle at Jeff. My 5 are still alive so far.
Ok, so Plymouth and Ft. Wayne South let me down in a big way (Never expected South to lay the egg they did), I have to say that there really were not a lot of surprises in week one of the playoffs. Reitz and Jasper both advanced by a combined score of 85-0, in what is starting to look like a game of "anything you can do, I can do better." Castle won in a sloppy game at Jeff. Memorial rolled.
I told everyone to watch for this game two weeks ago: Center Grove at Columbus East. Huge implications of it. East is wanting to prove that they can beat the big boys in 5A while Center Grove wants to continue the road to defending their state title. Should be the best game in the state.
Not to pat myself on my back, but I called it. Center Grove beat Columbus East 21-14 last night. Sure would have liked to see it. That had to be a great game. Watch for CG to roll to the dome.
my 5 picks are still alive.
Ok. A lot of my picks went up in flames pretty quick, but that won't stop me!!! Here are all of my breakdowns for the sectional finals.
Sectional 1 Merrillville
Sectional 2 Penn
Sectional 3 FW Snider
Sectional 4 Hamilton SE
Sectional 5 Warren Central
Sectional 6 Brownsburg
Sectional 7 Center Grove
Sectional 8 Castle
Sectional 9 Hammond Morton
Sectional 10 Lowell
Sectional 11 FW Dwenger
Sectional 12 Delta
Sectional 13 New Palestine
Sectional 14 Indianapolis Cathedral
Sectional 15 East Central
Sectional 16 Reitz
Sectional 17 Andrean
Sectional 18 Jimtown
Sectional 19 Eastbrook
Sectional 20 West Lafayette
Sectional 21 Upset alert!!!!! Brebeuf Jesuit
Sectional 22 Hamilton Heights
Sectional 23 Heritage Hills
Sectional 24 Memorial
Sectional 25 Wheeler
Sectional 26 Fairfield
Sectional 27 FW Luers
Sectional 28 Two teams that haven't allowed a point all playoffs. Northwestern
Sectional 29 Indianapolis Ritter
Sectional 30 Monrovia
Sectional 31 Paoli
Sectional 32 Mater Dei
Sectional 33 Culver
Sectional 34 Laf Central Catholic
Sectional 35 Southern Wells
Sectional 36 Knightstown
Sectional 37 Clinton Central
Sectional 38 Indianapolis Lutheran
Sectional 39 Fountain Central
Sectional 40 North Daviess
Sorry. No reads today. Would take to long to break it all down. I'll start with the regionals next week.
4 of 8 in 5A, 8 of 8 in 4A, 6 of 8 in 3A, 6 of 8 in 2A, and 7 of 8 in 1A. Not a bad week. Look for my class by class regional breakdowns leading up to next week.
Evansville Mater Dei at Paoli
Mater Dei (7-5)
Mascot: Wildcats
Conference: Southern Indiana Athletic
Conference finish: Tied 4th (3-4)
Coach: Mike Goebel (123-41 in 13th year)
Key to victory: Control the clock, avoid mistakes
Gone is the pass happy team that Mater Dei has always featured. The 2009 version of the wildcats want to line it up and smack you in the mouth on the back of running back Cody Hess. If they can avoid the big game mistakes, they can make a game of it in Paoli. Unfortunately, in their last big game, they made the mistakes, and was drubbed by Reitz 59-0. Look for the wildcats to be ready.
Paoli (12-0)
Mascot: Rams
Conference: Patoka Lake Athletic
Conference finish: 1st (5-0)
Coach: Brian Balsmeyer (28-17 in 4th year)
Paoli is a run dominate team. As a team, they have rushed for 3065 yards on 460 attempts, a 6.7 average. They use the pass to balance out a defense, with quarterback Logan Laswell completing 60 of 111 for 1058 yards and 16 TD to 2 Ints. A lot of people are pointing to this being their year, and the stats back it up. The question is were they tested enough in the regular season to fight their way through the tourney.
Paoli 28, Mater Dei 17
I hope you are wrong on that one. Go Cats!
Heritage Hills at Evansville Memorial
Heritage Hills (11-1)
Mascot: Patriots
Conference: Pocket Athletic
Conference record: 7-0
Coach: Bob Clayton (303-67 in 32nd year)
A very strong run oriented team, HH is one of the best teams in the area year in and year out. Good competition has prepared them for the tourney, with the only loss on the season being a three point loss to Sectional 16 finalist Jasper. Look for the patriots to attempt to keep the potent Memorial passing game grounded by controlling the clock and running the ball in an attempt to keep Gribbins on the sideline. The question is, can the patriot defense stop the air assault when Memorial has the ball.
Evansville Memorial (9-3)
Mascot: Tigers
Conference: Southern Indiana Athletic
Conference record: 6-1
Coach: John Hurley (21-6 in 2nd year)
Air raid alarms go off when the Memorial offense takes the field. Memorial passes the ball more than anyone else in the area, and quarterback Grant Gribbins holds all of the Memorial records as proof of that. After starting the season 1-3, Memorial has run off 8 straight victories. They can also hold claim to the only team that has held a double digit lead against Reitz.The quick strike offense can pose a problem for any team they face, but once again, the question has to be can their defense help out.
The speed of the game will be a little bit of a shock for HH at first, but one they will overcome. Memorial needs to use this time to gain a quick lead. If the patriots have to play catch up, it will be a long night, but they can do it.
Memorial 21, Heritage Hills 17
Evansville Reitz at East Central
Reitz (12-0)
Mascot: Panthers
Conference: Southern Indiana Athletic
Conference record: 7-0 1st in conference
Coach Tony Lewis (21-2 in 2nd year)
Quarterback Matt McIntosh leads a very potent panther team. This is one of the fastest teams that can be remembered. The 3-4 defense is fast enough to stop any offense put in front of them if they are prepared, and the blend of seniors and underclassmen is amazing and one that most teams would love to have. The offense is as potent as any seen, and once again it is all about the speed. Reitz passes enough to keep teams honest, but the offense is a variation of the spread option, and the ground is where this team wants to beat you.
East Central (10-2)
Mascot: Trojans
Conference: Eastern Indiana
Conference record: 4-1 2nd in conference
Coach: Don Stonefield (72-24 in 8th year)
A power running team similar to Jasper, they want to run between the tackles. They also run a variation of the "wildcat". Passing isn't big in their playbook.
Reitz is only playing their second game on grass all season, but it will be dry. The speed will seriously be a problem for the home team. Look for Reitz to run away and hide early.
Reitz 35, East Central 7